Expert：PLA Military Exercises Around Taiwan Scope Quite Well-Crafted
China Times, April 8, 2023
The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) "Eastern Theater Command" announced today that it will conduct a three-day “combat readiness” patrol and “United Sharp Sword” exercise encircling Taiwan. According to expert analysis, the situation this time is different from when Nancy Pelosi, then-speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, came to Taiwan last year. Su Tzu-yun, a director at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, believes that the main purpose of this military exercise is to show internal public opinion. Chang Yen-ting, former deputy commander of the Air Force, said that the PLA's military exercises are conducted in reaction to President Tsai Ing-wen's foreign visit and its purpose aims to normalize the PLA's military exercises.
With regard to the PLA military exercises, Su analyzed that this time the so-called “combat readiness patrol” and “United Sharp Sword” exercise encircling Taiwan is different from the situation when Pelosi came to Taiwan in August last year. The biggest difference lies in the dichotomy of "military force" and "firepower drill." On the one hand, showing the "military force" is to demonstrate sovereignty, and on the other hand, the "firepower drill” is to prevent other countries from overreacting and avoid negative impacts on the Chinese economy.
Su further explained that the "combat readiness police patrol" is an exercise carried out in the water and airspace near the north, east, and south of Taiwan, with warships including the aircraft carrier Shandong. It is a political show-off of PLA military strength. However, the “firepower drill,” another part of the “United Sharp Sword Exercise, requires the drawing of a firepower drill site, a marked area where ships or airplanes are prohibited from passing, so they chose to carry out this operation in China’s coastal waters of Pingtan to avoid affecting international routes.
Su opined that Communist China’s sudden announcement of the three-day military exercise today is a response to internal public sentiment. Previously, the inspection patrol near mainland Chinese waters led by the Maritime Safety Administration caused Internet users, or so-called “little pinks” to be dissatisfied that it was not tough enough, so the military exercise this time is "for domestic needs.” The scope of the military exercise is also exquisitely controlled so that it can be called a military exercise while being limited to a certain area to avoid strong reactions from the international system.
Chang stated that the PLA’s military exercise is a position against President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the United States and her meeting with the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy. The military exercises encircling Taiwan this time imply that the PLA will implement this kind of action on a regular basis in the future.
Chang stated that the PLA’s joint-forces inspection patrol and military exercise, which include the Maritime Safety Administration, a civil law enforcement unit, are carried out at the same time. This means that the PLA has now integrated the exercise with military and political purposes. It is also a move declaring sovereignty over the Taiwan Strait to make it China’s internal waters.
According to Chang’s analysis, the situation this time is different from that of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last year. No missiles will be launched this time. There were at least 11 rounds last time. Furthermore, this time there is no advance notice in accordance with international rules, so there are only firepower drills in the coastal area with ground-to-air missiles, ship-to-ship missiles, etc., but no ballistic missiles.
Yet Chang reminded that China is currently the world's largest producer of drones, and this military exercise is sure to deploy drones. We cannot rule out the possibility of drones flying into the 12 nautical mile economic waters because the PLA will continue to test Taiwan's bottom line. He believes that last year's situation was very bad for the Ministry of National Defense (MND), but this time it should be better handled with previous experience. He also advised the MND to deal with it seriously, and should not rule out the possibility of black swan-like incidents. In addition, the MND must avoid sparking a fire, lest the situation gets out of control.
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20230408003121-260407